Kenya's crisis: Uganda's opposition gets it wrong

The on-going crisis in Kenya has backed President Museveni into a corner of sorts. Uganda's economy and welfare are tied to Kenya's stability. As such, fuel shortages in Uganda have been disrupting business and causing the kinds of rumblings that are always dangerous to ignore. Museveni might have wanted to stay out of the Kenyan mess, but it was necessary for his government to open up a dialogue with Nairobi to work out a way that will ensure the flow of fuel into Uganda. Unfortunately for Museveni, this dialogue was always going to cost him something from the moment Mwai Kibaki started feeling a little alienated. In return for the 60 fuel trucks that arrived in Uganda recently, Museveni had to be the first to publicly congratulate Kibaki on his disputed re-election. This is shrewd move on Kibaki's part because Museveni's role as the chairman of the East African Community means that his congratulatory gesture carries a little more weight in international circles and puts pressure on other members of the EAC to follow suit. There is a possibility that they may do so, if only to maintain the illusion of unity.

For his part, Museveni recognizes the damage this action has done to him at home and has moved swiftly to position himself as a diplomat in a time of crisis. The fact that Uganda has also opened its doors to Kenya's refugees, Asians among them, will not hurt his efforts.

The opposition, always looking for kinks in Museveni's armour, has jumped at what they think is a chance to take the moral high ground. They would have Ugandans believe that they would have acted otherwise. Speaking on behalf of the opposition, the shadow Foreign Affairs minister called for the isolation of Kibaki and for sanctions on his government:

What has been done to (Robert) Mugabe (of Zimbabwe) should apply to Kibaki...The opposition will hold peaceful protests in Kampala, eastern and northern Uganda and other areas to show their solidarity with the people of Kenya and demonstrate against dictators who want to cling to power at all cost.

Regan Okumu, in the New Vision, January 3, 2007

This strategy might win some media attention and a couple of points for the opposition among NGOs and humanitarian agencies but ultimately it tells us more about their judgement. Okumu and Latigo seem to assume that Ugandans will not see through this attempt to manipulate a real humanitarian crisis into a political advantage for opposItion. It also demonstrates their inability to prioritize. It is true that Uganda benefits from democracy in Kenya, but any sanctions on Kenya will cripple Uganda's economy as well.

Instead of melodramatic calls to social consciousness, the opposition might be better off pointing out that Uganda's capacity for refugees is being stretched thin and that the government really should have anticipated the possibility of what we are witnessing. Ebola is still a threat in the west, and all it will take is one battle in eastern Congo for a new wave of refugees to come across the borer. In the north, the IDP camps are are still a concern, more so now that talks with the LRA are faltering. And North eastern Uganda is still recovering from massive flooding in September last year which destroyed housing and harvests.

This is not to say that Uganda should not be taking in Kenyan refugees. Far from it. Many Ugandans have been sheltered in Kenya in times of crisis and hardship. Rather, it is to prove that the role of an opposition should be to point out legitimate issues and propose a plan to tackle those issues before the government. Then trust the people to notice the hard work and reward it come election time. At least that is the way it should work.