Kibaki 2.0: Making Moi look good

When Daniel Arap Moi retired from the Kenyan presidency in 2002, it was clear that he had long overstayed his welcome. Whatever he had achieved for his country in almost a quarter of a century in power, the majority of the Kenyan people had long ceased to appreciate his efforts. Moi must have known as much from the jeering crowds at Mwai Kibaki's inauguration ceremony. Now though, Kibaki's questionable election victory and his decisions over the past two weeks are making Moi appear to be the lesser of two evils.

Moi's rule was synonymous with corruption, a stagnated economy and repression, but never political chaos or humanitarian crisis. It is therefore a telling sign of just how much Kenyans are being affecting by the recent crisis to hear some speak of Moi's rule with a certain longing. "At least with Moi, we knew what we had," said a Kenyan friend who just returned to Canada from Nairobi this past week. She was not alone in her assessment. This comment on a popular Kenyan blog echoes those very sentiments:

Personally, I was too young (or perhaps also too naïve) in the Moi era to know whether he rigged himself in, or won unfairly. People tell me about it and I have no doubt it happened, however, all I remember is that things were still relatively peaceful after elections and life still continued. The one time I remember elections mattering was after the first multi-party elections. When that happened, the effect at a school level, from that point on (sadly), a child’s ethnicity was something that was noticed more. Not necessarily in a negative way, but just that it was now more talked about. Before that we were all Kenyan pupils.

Allan Kirul, on Kenyan Pundit on January 14, 2008.

The nostalgia is logical. For all of Moi's failings as a president (and there were many) his decisions never resulted in such an international embarrassment for Kenyans. Over the past two weeks, Kibaki has done just that: taking the oath of office only hours after a highly suspect election victory; antagonizing the opposition by announcing a cabinet only hours after claiming to be willing to compromise; and snubbing offers of international mediation. In the meantime, the violence has claimed more than 600 lives and displaced over 100,000 people, 6,000 of whom are now refugees in Uganda. For a people who are proud of their stability Kenyans the world over will not find this crisis easy to forget, nor are they likely to remember Kibaki fondly when this is all over.

Some might argue that Kibaki deserves more consideration. He came to power in 2002 after campaigning as the candidate for change (Americans will be familiar with this reference). Since then, he has delivered free primary education, improved wages for civil servants and improvements to infrastructure. Under his rule, the country recovered from years of poor performance to record a real GDP growth of 6.1%, a level not seen in Kenya since 1981 when Kibaki was both finance minister and vice-president (source: The African Report, January- March 2008, 141). These are institutional reforms though and did not bring about any of the political changes that many Kenyans desire. Indeed, the first signs of trouble for Kibaki came when he failed to deliver on his promise for constitutional reforms. The defeat of his referendum in 2005 forced him to dismiss his entire cabinet and really himself with Moi.

Gitau Warigi, a Kenyan columnist, argued as much in his article, Old School:

At the end of the day, Kibaki has always been a beliver in the status quo. His differences with Moi were never about altering this status quo but rather about making it more efficient, especially in economic productivity, where the government has indisputably excelled.

Gitau Warigi in Focus on Africa Magazine, December 2007.

Economic success may be Kibaki's calling card, but he will have to work hard in his second term if he expects Kenyans to remember the good times. The instability has already cost the country's economy over $1 billion dollars and will certainly cause many economic analysts to downgrade their forecasts for Kenya's growth in 2008.

But it is not only among Kenyans that Kibaki is being compared unfavourably to Moi. Ugandans and Rwandans know that the high fuel prices they are facing are a result of the violence in Kenya:

Several, such as south Sudan and Uganda are landlocked, so rely on Kenya's roads and its port of Mombasa for their trade to the outside world. Uganda is particularly jittery. Its president, Yoweri Museveni, wants Kenyan troops to protect oil en route to the Ugandan border and says Uganda must build its own oil terminal to lessen its dependency on Mombasa. While Kenya's big men refuse to compromise, the country's reputation as a beacon of stability in a sea of regional turbulence is in tatters.

The Economist, in January 10, 2008

Kibaki's government is already working hard on damage control with reassures that its ports are back on track, but those efforts are being undermined by the persistent refusal to acknowledge the need for mediation.

Kenya's value in the region remains secure. An under-sea fibreoptic cable in Mombasa in 2009 will boost telecommunications developments and reinforce Kenya's role as a conduit to the outside world for the region. It is Kibaki's legacy that is really at stake.