Who is really in control in Kenya?

Kofi Annan is in Kenya to lead talks between President Mwai Kibaki and ODM opposition leader Raila Odinga. Thus far the two men have failed to find any common ground upon which they can work to bring stability back to the country and to the region. Now though they have Mr. Annan in their midst and you can be sure that the international community (specifically the G8) expects his presence to make a difference.

The case for peace is more urgent following the murder of an ODM MP Mugabe Were on Tuesday. His death has sparked more retributive attacks. The police seems to be outnumbered and overwhelmed where they are trying to put a stop to the violence.

But while Mr. Annan sips tea with Mr. Odinga and Mr. Kibaki, it is increasingly difficult to believe that either one of these key political figures is capable of calling the thugs off the streets of Kisumu, Nivasha, Nakuru and Eldoret. The gangs of youths brandishing machetes may still claim to be political protestors, but there is evidence that partisanship is being used as a license to commit terrible crimes.

Those who have noted that the current crisis was a long time in the making have also pointed out that many of the youths have nothing better to do than ferment tribal hatred. One Kenyan reporter said as much during BBC's Africa Today podcast on Tuesday. Will a handshake convince the gangs to disband and their members to go back to a jobless existence?

It is unlikely. In violence the gangs have found power, and though they claim that power in the names of politicians do not expect them to relinquish it simply because those same politicians say so.

But do not expect the political leaders to confess as much. Neither one will be willing to admit that his supporters have overrun his control. Sooner or later though, their authority will be put to the test. Both Mr. Odinga and Mr. Kibaki have repeatedly stated that Kenya is much bigger than either one of them.

They might find out just how true that really is.